Oscar This!: My 2006 Academy Award Predictions!

Hello again. Dang, it's been so long since my last post. What a bad, bad blogger I've been lately, huh? I'll post another update soon (promise), but for now, I want to get on to something very important... Oscar Predictions! Yep, folks, since it's just about that time again. Time when film fanatics get antsy, offices hold Oscar pools and Hollywood pats itself on the back for all the good work they've done (and hey, why not?). This year's Oscars promise to be one of the more interesting races in recent years, especially with the depth of talent that is nominated. Indie films seem to be the most represented of the nominees, with nods to Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features), Capote (Sony Pictures Classics), Crash (Lion's Gate) and Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner Independent Films). And with gay or gay-themed films represented in all the top categories, the 2006 Oscars could be a major victory for the gay community. I'm placing my bets on the following nominees to walk off the winners. See if any of these match your picks, and post your comments. Looking forward to seeing what you have to say.

Without further ado, here we go...

KEN'S 2006 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Having seen all the picture nominees, and having liked all of them to
some degree, I have to go with Brokeback Mountain, not only b/cuz it is, at the moment, possibly the most culturally significant of the bunch (after that landslide defeat of gay marriage initiatives in those 2004 elections, an old-fashioned Hollywood love story about two men whose love for each other is devastated by homophobia is a subtle but powerful way to give the finger to bigots across the country), but b/cuz it is the most understated, eloquent and simply beautiful of the bunch. Good Night, And Good Luck was, to me, too sparse, too simple, too small. Capote was more of an actor's movie than it was a story movie. Munich was good, but just didn't hit all the right notes. And Crash, as much as I loved it and its message, was just a tad bit overwrought for my tastes in its well-intended but often manipulative depiction of race relations in the big city, and I think that might work against its chances. Brokeback, on the other hand, with its simple, elegiac narrative and uniformly understated performances, was the most haunting--and also the most profound--of the nominees. Add to that the wealth of critical accolades being tossed at the movie, and I think it's a safe bet to say that, this year, Hollywood is "going gay." (And really, it's about f#cking time. Haha)

BEST DIRECTOR: ANG LEE

Though I thought Steven Spielberg did a superb job with Munich (I love the very 1970s feel the movie had, not only in the costumes and settings, but in the film's relatively languid pacing, which reminded me of The China Syndrome and All the President's Men), I don't think Munich is showy enough for him to win the Oscar. That leaves Paul Haggis, Bennett Miller, George Clooney and Ang Lee. Good Night, And Good Luck will most likely be shut out of all the categories it is nominated in (i's just too small a film by Academy-standards to win an Oscar for anything major), and Capote isn't as lofty as most Oscar-winning films usually are. In another year, Paul Haggis might have walked off for managing several interweaving storylines in Crash, but there is simply no beating Ang Lee, who not only delivered the year's most genuinely heartbreaking love story, but he wrestled the finest performances of the year out of his cast.

BEST ACTOR: PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

My personal favorite is Heath Ledger, not only b/cuz his portrayal of a straight cowboy (truly, I don't think his character is really "gay") in love with another man is a show-stopping marvel of explosive longing, but also b/cuz he's one of only 2 men nominated in this category that created a role out of scratch. But the Academy loves anything showy, which means that Philip Seymour Hoffman's tour de force as Truman Capote will walk away the winner. Which means that Terrence Howard (a wonder in the brilliant Hustle & Flow), Joaquin Phoenix (damn good, but the movie was just so-so) and David Strathairn (exceptionally good, but Good Night's smallness is working against him) will have to be content just clapping along with Ledger as Hoffman makes another acceptance speech. On the bright side, this means that 3 out of 4 of the awards in the top categories will go to a gay-themed project.

BEST ACTRESS: REESE WITHERSPOON

OK, let's talk the losers. Keira Knightley is luminescent in Pride & Prejudice, but at 20, she will have plenty of chances ahead of her. Apart from that, she's up against some powerhouse talent, namely Judi Dench (who, many have said, simply "phoned it in" for Mrs. Henderson Presents), Charlize Theron (who already won for her other ugly-woman role in Monster), and front-runners Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. Though Huffman deserves the award for not only her woman-as-a-man-becoming-a-woman tour de force in Transamerica but also for all the years this brilliant actress has been overlooked by TV and movies, I think that Witherspoon will be the lone major win for Walk the Line. Let's face it: she's American's Sweetheart (aka box office gold) right now, and the Academy just may feel compelled to make sure they hand out a statuette to at least one movie nominated in the major categories that was a bona-fide hit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: GEORGE CLOONEY

I have to say, I was very glad to see Jake Gyllenhaal recognized in this category. Though much of the acting praise for Brokeback has been heaped upon Heath Ledger, Gyllenhaal is really the glue that holds the movie together. His puppy-dog-in-love performance simply wreaks of vulnerability and ruffian charm, but I think he will be dismissed as just playing "second fiddle" to his co-star. That leaves Matt Dillon, Paul Giamatti, William Hurt and George Clooney. Though Dillon deserves major kudos for once again playing against type as the sadistic cop in Crash, he's not the type of actor that usually finds himself up for Oscar awards. And as unfair as this might be to say, I think that will work against him. He's Matt Dillon, the guy from Little Darlings and The Outsiders. Teen hunk getting older. I don't know that people take him that seriously. William Hurt, on the other hand, is an Oscar vet, having won for Kiss of the Spider Woman and been nominated two other times. But his work in A History of Violence amounts to just 10 minutes of screen time. Paul Giamatti has finally been recognized by the Academy, after having been shut out the last two years in a row. But this year, he'll just have to be happy that they thought of him at all. Which means that George Clooney, who actually put on lots of weight and got himself admitted to the hospital for his role in Syriana, will hopefully be keeping us in stitches with another hilarious acceptance speech. If he can top the one he gave at the Globes, I'd be all too happy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: RACHEL WEISZ

This is one of the times where the phrase "Yeah, but she won the Golden Globe" comes in handy. I would love to see Michelle Williams awarded for her stunning, implosive performance as a wife wronged in Brokeback Mountain, but people may still hold Dawson's Creek against her. Amy Adams was a surprise nomination, and she gave a delightful performance, but Junebug was a difficult and loopy movie that not many people saw. Catherine Keener, I felt was just a little dull as Harper Lee in Capote, which brushed her aside far too often in favor of Hoffman. Frances McDormand was great (as always) in North Country, but I think that the role was actually too small, not to mention the fact that she was, um, mining familiar territory (a la Fargo), and I doubt she'll be awarded for doing so this time around. Which means that Rachel Weisz, who won the Globe for her turn as a daring activist in The Constant Gardener (and whose character's death ignited that film with much of its suspsene) will probably have another speech to deliver come Oscar night.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Quickly, b/cuz I'm starting to get tired of typing and I've got things to do: While The Constant Gardener and A History of Violence both broke free of the page-to-screen stereotypes that often plague adaptations of books, I don't see them as being weighty enough to snag this award. Munich was, in my opinion, simply too old-fashioned for today's times, and Capote was more of a character study than it was a truly great story. Which leaves Brokeback. And let's face it: Turning a 53-page novella into a powerhouse love story that clocks in at over 2 hours is the very definition of adaptation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREEPLAY: CRASH

The Squid and the Whale: brilliant movie (I loved it), but far too small by Oscar standards. Good Night, And Good Luck: Apart from Ben Affleck and Matt Damon, how often do actors (in this case, George Clooney) win Oscar awards for writing? Match Point: Woody Allen's best in years, but the story is more like a BBC mystery than the feature film it was turned into (and, to me, it shows in the finished product). Syriana: Perhaps a bit too bogged down in politics. Which means that Paul Haggis' Crash, which works several storylines into one mammoth whole, should be the winner among this lot.

OTHER RACES:

BEST ART DIRECTION: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Please, did you see how beautiful this movie looked?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Geisha is too easy a win. Besides, it's all costumes and art
direction for that one. Brokeback is the most luminously beautiful
of the bunch.

BEST FILM EDITING: CRASH
Sorry, gotta go with the one with the most storylines tied together.
I never once got lost during the film.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Sure, I love the music in Brokeback, but John Williams is an Oscar
giant. With two nods this year, I think he'll score (har! har!) for
the authentic Geisha score.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "IN THE DEEP" FROM CRASH
I want Dolly Parton to win, and I loved "It's Hard Out Here for a
Pimp," but Eminem's win for "Lose It" from 8 Mile may have been a fluke for rap songs, and Parton's tune might be a bit too simplistic for the academy. In the Deep is the kind of emotionally rousing show-stopper of the bunch.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: KING KONG
As if there were any other choice.

BEST SOUND EDITING: KING KONG
Ditto.

BEST SOUND MIXING: KING KONG
Though Ray won in this category last year, I'm sticking with Kong
in a two-for-two win in the sound categories.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Charlie & the Chocolate Factory was a joy to look at, but Colleen
Atwood is already a winner (for Chicago), and Hollywood is a sucker
for Asian design, so I'm going with Geisha to, er, wear the pants in
this family of nominees.

BEST MAKEUP: CHRONICLES OF NARNIA
Cinderella Man doesn't stand a chance in this one. So it's
between Star Wars Episode 3: The Revenge of the Sith and The
Chronicles of Narnia. Though most are predicting that Narnia will
be the winner in this category, I would't be surprised if the Academy gave the the Lord of the Rings/"end of the trilogy" award to Sith.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: TOTSI
It's the only one I know anything about. :)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: WALLACE & GROMIT: CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT
With 3 prior wins for their W&G shorts, expect Nick Park to snag a
fourth for their feature film debut. Besides, it was a true treat for
all.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: 9
Some might think that Pixar will again dominate (for One Man Band),
but I'm thiking that 9 might take it for being the most interesting
of the bunch. A suspense yarn as a kids' tale? I'm down with that!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
When all else fails, go with the Box Office winner! :)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA
Some have predicted The Death of Kevin Carter to be the winner
here, but I must admit: I love the title of God Sleeps in Rwanda. I
mean, it just sounds like an Oscar winner, doesn't it? :)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: AUSREISSER
It's German, it's pretty out there, and it's about a creepy kid. It's
got my vote.

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OK, folks, there you have it. My votes for this year's Oscar wins.
Coincidentally, they are very much in line with the predictions
in Entertainment Weekly this year. Hey, I think I might just be on
to something! :)