The ContendersThis year’s crop of Oscar nominees is made up of a decidedly “alpha” bunch. IN gets into the ring to predict which ones will emerge victorious.
By Ken KnoxIf you’re the type of person who follows trends (and really—what gay man living in Los Angeles doesn’t?), you may have noticed that many of this year’s line-up of Oscar nominees have something in common: They’re a rather manly bunch. From the rough-and-tumble virility of Best Actor nominees
Daniel Day Lewis,
Tommy Lee Jones and
Viggo Mortensen, to the tomboy trio of Best Supporting Actress nominees
Amy Ryan (as a hardened addict in Ben Affleck’s
Gone Baby Gone),
Tilda Swinton (as a ball-busting law woman in
Michael Clayton) and
Cate Blanchett (who actually appears as a man in Todd Haynes’ unconventional study of folkie Bob Dylan,
I'm Not There), right down to the nominees for sound editing, this year’s crop of Oscar contenders is downright burly in nature. Now that the writer’s strike is over and the Oscars are going on as scheduled, we can all sit back in anticipation of the big fight and watch the sweat and blood—or at least the bitchy jokes by Bruce Vilanch—fly.
Who’s going to win, you ask? Aye, there’s the rub. In a year in which the race is as wide open as a porn star’s legs on a Saturday night, certainties are virtually non-existent. Which is why I'm here to offer you my expert opinion on who will be this year’s champions.
Best ActorGeorge Clooney,
Michael ClaytonDaniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be BloodJohnny Depp,
Sweeney ToddTommy Lee Jones,
In the Valley of ElahViggo Mortensen,
Eastern PromisesThis is by far the most rugged collection of actor nominees in a while. Heck, even
Johnny Depp managed to leave behind his trademark fanciful mirth for a typically brilliant turn as a hardened barber-turned-murderer in
Sweeney Todd. But Depp’s turn to win is still off in the distance—Oscar rarely honors musicals—so
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perhaps his
next collaboration with director Tim Burton will bring him a statue. Clooney deserves a nomination for his stellar work as the unhinged title character in
Michael Clayton, but the film’s low profile could hurt his chances. Likewise,
In the Valley of Elah’s poor showing at the box office will unfairly hinder Jones’ chances at a win. We’d love to predict that studly Mortensen (whose much-ballyhooed nude fight scene in
Eastern Promises got more attention than the flick itself) would emerge victorious, but since virtually no one saw the movie, I'm betting that the trophy goes to category front-runner
Day-Lewis, whose showy but solid turn as an oil man in Paul Thomas Anderson’s
There Will Be Blood was the most talked-about performance of the year.
Best ActressCate Blanchett,
Elizabeth: The Golden AgeJulie Christie: Away From HerMarion Cotillard,
La Vie en RoseLaura Linney,
The SavagesEllen Page,
JunoAfter being snubbed by virtually every other awards shows, Linney was a surprise nominee for an Oscar, but the lack of support cancels her out. Blanchett will have a hard time overcoming her movie’s bad reviews, while Cotillard will have to settle for achieving that rare feat of being a foreign actress nominated for an Academy Award.
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That leaves Ellen Page in one corner and Julie Christie in the other. Though 20-year-old Page was delightfully engaging as the precocious title character in
Juno, she’ll have many other opportunities in her still-budding career to take Oscar home—which means that veteran actress Christie is the best shot for a sure thing in this category. Her devastating depiction of a woman in the throes of Alzheimer’s is everything the Academy loves. Plus it’s about time she picked up another trophy; this will be her first since her win for 1965’s Darling.
Best Supporting ActorCasey Affleck,
The Assassination of Jesse James…Javier Bardem, No Country for Old MenPhilip Seymour Hoffman,
Charlie Wilson’s WarHal Holbrook,
Into the WildTom Wilkinson,
Michael Clayton
I’d love to see Hoffman take the trophy for his hilariously droll turn as a maverick CIA operative in
Charlie Wilson’s War, but it will be impossible to overcome the buzz for Bardem, whose menacing performance as a murderous crook probably scared the Academy into voting for him. Dark horse potential goes to Hal Holbrook.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not ThereRuby Dee,
American GangsterSaoirse Ronan,
AtonementAmy Ryan,
Gone Baby GoneTilda Swinton,
Michael Clayton
With no clear front-runner, this is perhaps the tightest race of the night. Here’s who won’t win: Swinton and Ronan, whose combined screen time in their respective films equals about 30 minutes. Veteran actress Dee has some steam after her surprise win at the SAG Awards and could pull off the seemingly requisite upset in this category, while Ryan’s performance as a drug-addled mother of a kidnap victim in
Gone Baby Gone has won her accolades from virtually ever major critic’s organization. But I'm going with Blanchett, a prior winner in this category for playing another real-life character (Kate Hepburn in
The Aviator). As a ‘60s-era Bob Dylan, she stole the show from the likes of Richard Gere and the late Heath Ledger. Plus, drag queens know: Donning the clothing of the opposite sex is no easy task.
Best Animated FeaturePersepolisRatatouilleSurf’s Up
Although I think it’s a crime not to honor Marjane Satrapi’s stunning
Persepolis, it’s hard to argue with the momentum of Pixar’s
Ratatouille. After all, who doesn’t love a rat in the kitchen? Um, on second thought…
Best Documentary Feature
No End in SightOperation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime ExperienceSickoTaxi to the Dark SideWar/Dance
With all the emphasis on wartime drama, this category is nothing if not a battleground. The lone exception is Michael Moore’s health care doc,
Sicko, which gets points for eschewing some of Moore’s usual bombastic chest thumping in favor of a bit more objectivity. But it will be hard to best the critically lauded
No End in Sight, which gets points for revealing the incompetence that fueled President Bush’s so-called “war on terror.”
Best Original ScreenplayBrad Bird et al,.
RatatouilleDiablo Cody, JunoTony Gilroy,
Michael ClaytonTamara Jenkins,
The SavagesNancy Oliver,
Lars and the Real Girl
While the Coen brothers are sure to take the award in the Adapted Screenplay category for their treatment of
No Country for Old Men, the Original Screenplay race is a bit less predictable.
Ratatouille has been universally praised by critics everywhere as one of the best films of the year, but if the equally beloved
Juno is to win any major awards, it will be here. And even though Cody’s teen-speak is a bit on the self-consciously “hip” side, look for her teen pregnancy comedy to leave the Kodak Theater with a baby named Oscar.
Best DirectorPaul Thomas Anderson,
There Will Be BloodEthan Coen and Joel Coen, No Country for Old MenTony Gilroy,
Michael ClaytonJason Reitman,
JunoJulian Schnabel,
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
In a perfect world,
Michael Clayton’s Tony Gilroy would be honored for his studied re-enactment of a ‘70s suspense drama, but I know how these things work by now—which means that the front-running Coen brothers are shoo-ins for the award they should have received for 1995’s
Fargo. That means talented whippersnapper Reitman will just have to wait his turn, while Schnabel will have to settle for just being nominated. Potential dark horse: Anderson, who directed Daniel Day-Lewis to deliver the performance of his career.
Best PictureAtonementJunoMichael ClaytonNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be BloodFirst things first: A Best Picture nomination for
Juno? I loved the movie, but the more deserving
Persepolis (or hell, even
Ratatouille) should have taken its place in this category.
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That said, Reitman’s comedy doesn’t stand a chance for the win, so it’s really a moot point.
Atonement has the sweeping romance of 1996 winner
The English Patient, but the reviews have been mixed and without nominations for actor, actress or director, it will have a hard time overcoming the competition. Meanwhile,
Michael Clayton (my choice for the deserving winner) lacks the momentum to snag the trophy. Critical momentum counts for a lot in this category, and, while
There Will Be Blood has received its fare share, the Coen brothers’ ultra-violent adaptation of Cormac McCarthy’s novel,
No Country for Old Men, is the best-reviewed film of the year. Then again, look what happened with
Brokeback Mountain in 2006. I'm
still knocking remnants of that chip from my shoulder two years later.
THE OTHER CATEGORIESDocumentary ShortFreeheldLa Corona (The Crown)Salim BabaSari’s MotherSari’s Mother is an emotionally affecting movie about an Iraq mother seeks health care for her AIDS-stricken 10-year-old son. You do the math.
Foreign Language FilmBeaufortThe CounterfeittersKatynMongol12With
Persepolis and
The Orphanage unjustly ignored in this category, look for Poland’s WWII drama to take the gold this year. Potential dark horse:
The Counterfeitters.
CinematographyThe Assassination of Jesse James…AtonementThe Diving Bell and the ButterflyNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be BloodAtonement and
There Will Be Blood looked great, but the
No Country sweep will continue here.
Art DirectionAmerican GangsterAtonementThe Golden CompassSweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet StreetThere Will Be BloodDoes anyone else notice that movies with European settings almost always seem to win the Oscar in this category? That would make
Atonement the practical choice for a winner, but I'm going with
Sweeney Todd for its overall tone of foreboding, which was brilliantly complimented by the drab sets.
Animated Film ShortI Met the WalrusMadame Tutli-PutliMême les Pigeons Vont au ParadisMy Love (Moya Lyubov)Peter & the WolfThe classic kids’ film gets a CGI makeover and goes directly to the podium in the process.
Live Action Film ShortAt NightIl Supplente (The Substitute)Le Mozart des PickpocketsTanghi ArgentiniThe Tonto WomanMovies about scrappy but adorable little boys tug at the heart strings of everyone, and Oscar voters are no exception.
Visual EffectsThe Golden CompassPirates of the Caribbean: At World’s EndTransformersPlease—my head is still reeling from watching cars turn into giant robots.
Costume DesignAcross the UniverseAtonementElizabeth: The Golden AgeLa Vie en RoseSweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet StreetI'm tempted to go with Sweeney Todd again, but my bet is that the European factor will reign supreme in this category.
Film EditingThe Bourne UltimatumThe Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the WildNo Country for Old MenThere Will Be BloodThough
The Bourne Ultimatum featured some of the flashiest editing ever put on film, look for the more subtle choice,
No Country, to come out on top.
Sound MixingThe Bourne UltimatumNo Country for Old MenRatatouille3:10 to YumaTransformersPlease—I’ve still got a headache from listening to cars turning into robots.
Sound EditingThe Bourne UltimatumNo Country for Old MenRatatouilleThere Will Be BloodTransformersSee above.
Original Score
AtonementThe Kite RunnerMichael ClaytonRatatouille3:10 to YumaWith Johnny Greenwald’s mesmerizing score for
There Will Be Blood unjustly snubbed due to an insipid technicality, look for
Atonement and
3:10 to Yuma to duke it out in this category. Odds to
Atonement, just because Academy voters love sweeping romantic scores.
Original Song“Falling Slowly,” Once“Happy Working Song,”
Enchanted“Raise It Up,”
August Rush“So Close,”
Enchanted“That’s How You Know,”
EnchantedAll those nods for
Enchanted should (hopefully) cancel each other out, allowing scrappy indie pic
Once to rise up and win.
MakeupLa Vie en RoseNorbitPirates of the Caribbean: At World’s EndOne look at the sea creatures that descend upon Captain Jack and company and the winner in this category becomes very transparent.